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THE singer Sheryl Crow reported herself to be startled by the reaction of Karl Rove at the recent White House correspondent’s dinner to her impromptu suggestion that the US do more about global warming. George W, Bush’s adviser responded like “a spoiled child throwing a tantrum”, launching into “illogical arguments” about how the US should do nothing until China did. Ms Crow was aghast. “Since when do we follow China’s lead?”
To answer her question, the US was following, or at least emulating, China long before Mr Rove arrived in the White House. The Kyoto protocol fell flat initially in Washington when Bill Clinton and Al Gore balked at trying to strong-arm Congress on mandatory cuts in emissions for the US without a similar commitment from developing countries, notably China.
Whatever the flimsy merits of this argument, it has perversely only gained in strength since the late 1990s, at precisely the moment when the global consensus about the science of climate change has been hardening. The US has long been the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. But China’s rapid growth in the intervening years will earn it that dubious title as early as this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
China’s gross domestic product is still less than one-fifth the size of the US, but its total emissions have ballooned because of an investment splurge on steel, cement, aluminium and the like, all hugely energy-intensive industries, plus reliance on coal to produce power. The impact from mass markets in middle-class trappings such as cars and air-conditioners has yet to kick in.
When they do, China’s greenhouse gases will tower over the rest of the world. The IEA calculates Chinese emissions in the next 25 years will be double that of all other industrialised countries combined, on current trends.
For Mr Rove and his ilk, then, China looks like a better excuse for inaction than ever. But the trouble with this argument is that China is also China’s excuse. Without the ability to pollute, Chinese officials argue, they will forsake the right to grow, as developed countries have. If the US waits on China to accede to mandatory cuts before adopting them itself, there will be no global system to pare back greenhouse gases for more than a decade.
China has strong arguments in its favour. It is only a relatively small contributor to cumulative emissions. And the developed world has been happy to enjoy the benefits of low Chinese wages and lax environmental standards to ensure the shelves at home are well-stocked with cheap goods. Chinese pollution is mostly out of sight of western consumers, but it is part of the bargain their system has bought into.
China has never been in denial about global warming but its leaders increasingly seem to be almost despairing about it in the short-term. In late April, Wen Jiabao, the premier, delivered another lengthy speech on emissions, promising tough action on polluters, while candidly admitting, again, the government’s efforts had had little impact. China has so far failed to meet even its own self-imposed targets for improved energy efficiency and lower pollution, let alone greenhouse gases reductions, to which it will not commit.
There is ample self-interest to spur action in China without worrying about Mr Rove. Rising sea levels could put Shanghai and large slabs of the prosperous coast under water. Already scarce water resources will be diminished by the melting of glaciers on the Tibetan plateau. Crop yields will fall.
But climate change, and the environment, still remain subordinate to, and indeed suborned by, the primary policy aim of the central and local governments, of the need to maintain fast growth. Until there is a genuine change in the structure of the economy, tackling emissions will be impossible.
There are exceptions. Yu Youjun, the party secretary of Shanxi, China’s coal heartland, announced late last month the province would take off-line Rmb100bn ($12bn) worth of polluting enterprises in the five years to 2010. This is equal to about 20 per cent of Shanxi’s 2005 GDP.
When the Financial Times visited the ebullient Mr Yu late last year, he spent much of his time detailing how he closes small coal businesses by blowing them up at the mine mouth. He then dispatches “spy-flights” to photograph them from the air to make sure they had not reopened.
The key to Mr Yu succeeding, however, depends on whether he gets credit from Beijing for closing industries and putting people out of work. Hitherto, officials have been judged internally by the Communist party solely on whether the economy grew under their watch, with little regard to how it was achieved. There has been much fanfare about the introduction of new environmental benchmarks, but there is scant evidence of any genuine change in the growth mindset.
This is where the US comes in. China needs pressure from outside, as well as within. The US has the ability to lead on the issue, whereas the Chinese are plainly flailing. This does not mean indulging China. It means acknowledging the short-term limitations of its position, while shaming and encircling it internationally for its failures at the same time. Only then will China be forced to act.
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FT Syndication Service |
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